1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
There’s no denying it now. In a matter of months, FSU has become FIU.
From national championship contender in 2023, to becoming the third FBS team in 45 years to lose twice as a double-digit favorite to start the season.
From whining about playoff worthiness to humbling back-to-back losses to ACC welterweights Georgia Tech and Boston College.
From the blueprint to navigating the new world of NIL and free player movement in the transfer portal, to what in the wide world of sports is going on here?
“We’ve been knocked down,” Florida State coach Mike Norvell said after the latest gut punch Labor Day night from Boston College. “We know how to get back up.”
They shouldn’t be in this position in the first place. The genesis of this colossal collapse at the worst possible time (more on that later), is the decision Norvell made in late December of 2023.
He decided to offer a scholarship — and therefore, the starting job — to nomadic quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. Full of momentum and winner of 19 consecutive regular-season games, Norvell took his white-hot program and threw a heavy, wet blanket on it.
He could have signed Cam Ward. He could have signed Will Rogers or KJ Jefferson or anyone who hadn’t proven to be just another guy at two previous stops (Clemson, Oregon State).
Don’t blame DJU for this mess. Norvell and his staff share in it, too.
They knew Uiagalelei and how he played, and ― just like every other coach ― believed they could fix him. In the age of the vertical passing game ruling football at all levels, Norvell — who had made nearly every right decision in rebuilding the FSU program — chose a quarterback a team can win with, not a quarterback a team wins because of.
You win because of former FSU star Jordan Travis, you win with Uiagalelei. At least, that was the idea.
For the next eight months, Norvell spoke about DJU’s work ethic and leadership, and FSU’s ability to surround him with players to help him and the team reach lofty goals. Then the season began, and what had played out the previous four seasons for DJU showed up again.
In two games, Uiagalelei has missed three touchdown throws, all three throws that quarterbacks at this level of college football have to make. His accuracy is shaky, and the offense — like Clemson and Oregon State prior — plays with a lack of urgency.
You’re not winning games when your quarterback is completing 58% of his passes and averaging less than 7 yards per attempt. But it’s not all DJU. We should’ve seen this coming from last season, when bowl game opt-outs left FSU with its current roster minus transfer portal signings — and it lost by 60 to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
So the idea was to supplement the Orange Bowl team through the portal, and then give DJU the keys to the machine. The problem: Keon Coleman, Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Tatum Bethune, et al, aren’t walking through that door year after year after year.
Nor was Travis (also a portal addition), whose elite play at the most important position on the field erased so many mistakes on both sides of the ball.
But here’s the portal catch: a majority of the unloved and unwanted of the portal are there for a reason. It either didn’t work at their previous school, or they’re looking for a one-shot money grab before leaving for the NFL. It’s a crapshoot any way you look at it.
Norvell has threaded the needle the last two seasons with additions that seamlessly transitioned. Now here we are, with an overwhelmed quarterback, and a misfit, suddenly wayward roster void of leadership grown within the program.
Everything that once worked with the influx of transfer portal additions now looks like a discombobulate mess. The Seminoles can’t run the ball, they can’t stop the run.
They’ve left everything in the lap of DJU, who has proven over and over that he’s not a quarterback you win because of.
Now he’s not a quarterback the Noles can win with, either.
2. The fall and the consequences
Don’t think a collapse in 2024 won’t affect FSU’s much-publicized desire to leave the ACC and find a home elsewhere.
Three people in the industry or connected Big Ten have told USA TODAY Sports over the last three months that a partnership with FSU — which is suing the ACC to gain release from the league and its media rights deal — is “not realistic” for multiple reasons. Those people asked to not be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.
At the top of the list is that FSU “has proven to be a poor partner,” according to a Big Ten person, and, “What will they do if they don’t get their way here? Will they sue their partners again?”
Now there’s another issue, one pertaining to performance. Conference expansion is as much about performance as fit. An elite program ― which FSU was building back toward — is difficult to overlook.
After the Big Ten added USC and UCLA in June of 2022, and after league officials quickly realized two more were needed from the West Coast schools if the opportunity arrived, Oregon and Washington were identified and added a year later. Not so much because of philosophical fit, but because of on-field performance and fit.
Nearly half of the Big Ten presidents, a person told USA TODAY Sports last fall, wanted Stanford and California because of their prestigious academics and fit. But Oregon and Washington won out because performance now carries as much weight as fit. The person did not want to be identified due to the sensitivity of the situation.
Already on shaky ground with the Big Ten, FSU simply can’t afford for the product to tank — giving the Big Ten one more reason to not entertain a future relationship.
3. The quick fall, epilogue
Change must come at the quarterback spot, no matter how much NIL money has been invested in DJU.
FSU has an open date to prepare for a dangerous Memphis team — and elite quarterback Seth Henigan — arriving in Tallahassee on Sept. 14. That’s 11 days to get another quarterback (redshirt freshman Brock Glenn or freshman Luke Kromenhoek) ready to play.
The Noles simply can’t continue playing a quarterback who completed 4 of 15 passes beyond five yards for 56 yards against Boston College. And worse, completed 12 of 14 attempts in the first half against Georgia Tech — but averaged negative air yards per attempt.
If it’s going to change this season, it has to begin now. The Noles can’t afford to roll out DJU again and expect different results.
FSU’s very football lives — and its unstable conference membership future — may depend on it.
“It’s on me,” a visibly shaken Norvell said after the Boston College loss. “I have to get this fixed.”
MISERY INDEX: Florida is flailing but it’s not all on Billy Napier
HIGHS AND LOWS: Winners and losers from the opening weekend
4. A seminal, Big Red moment
This is why Dylan Raiola signed with Nebraska. Why the five-star quarterback recruit bailed on a commitment to Georgia and decided to redefine a program — instead of being just another cog in the machine.
A week after a warmup win over Texas-El Paso, it gets real for the legacy recruit this week against bitter rival Colorado.
Raiola looked poised and confident against UTEP, threw for 238 yards and two touchdowns, and most importantly — considering the recent history of Nebraska quarterbacks — didn’t throw an interception or lose a fumble.
Of all the turnover problems at the position over the Scott Frost era, and into Year 1 under Huskers coach Matt Rhule, none underscored the enormity of the situation greater than former quarterback Jeff Sims in 2023. Of the 28 drives he led, 35% ended in a turnover (six interceptions, four fumbles).
That’s about one every three drives, and underscores why Raiola’s clean performance against the Miners was such an important step.
But more than anything, Raiola allows Nebraska to stretch the field offensively, to complete more second- and third-level throws and force defenses to play the entire field. Last season (and every year since its last bowl season of 2016), a limited pass game allowed opponents to dictate the direction of the game.
The Huskers averaged 6 yards per pass attempt last season and averaged nine against UTEP — without showing anything beyond vanilla sets and plays. That all changes this week, when the short, first-level and perimeter throws are supplemented with deep crosses, hi-low concepts and straight go routes.
And when we see why Raiola’s flip from Georgia was so critical for the future of Nebraska.
5. The Weekly Five
Five coaches (in order of value) Florida should consider if/when it moves on from Billy Napier.
1. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss: The stronger Ole Miss becomes, the less chance anyone has of hiring him.
2. Jedd Fisch, Washington: Would he leave Seattle for his alma mater after one season?
3. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri: If Tigers reach the College Football Playoff, it will be difficult to convince Drinkwitz to leave.
4. Bobby Slowik, Houston Texans offensive coordinator: He’s 37, he’s a brilliant offensive mind/quarterback coach, and five-star freshman quarterback DJ Lagway needs a reason to stay.
5. Lance Leipold, Kansas: The program builder (and NCAA lower division championship coach) would finally get his blueblood job.
6. Your tape is your resume
An NFL scout analyzes a 2025 draft-eligible player. This week: Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter.
“Where does he play? That’s the decision he’ll have to make. He’s elite at both, and frankly, there’s more money to be made playing offense. His (representative) will make that clear. He has deep speed, and quick explosion after the catch. Terrific body control with the ball in the air. He’s still growing at the position, and most everything is outside (throws) right now. You have to see more of that route tree, and we probably will over the course of the season. But you’re talking about a rare talent with the potential to be elite at either position.”
7. Power Play
This week’s Power Poll — 12 playoff teams, and four on the outside — and one big thing.
1. Georgia: Goodness gracious, that defense. Just when you think there might be a hiccup (see: 2023 SEC championship game), this group ends all hope of that — and shows two more emerging stars in linebackers Jalon Walker and CJ Allen.
2. Ohio State: Two more meaningless games (Western Michigan, Marshall) for the offense to build chemistry with three critical new additions (QB Will Howard, RB Quinshon Judkins, WR Jeremiah Smith) before Big Ten play begins.
3. Miami: You fall in love with Cam Ward (and why wouldn’t you?), but I’ll make this prediction: Canes will be ranked top five in the nation in scoring defense at the end of the regular season.
4. Oklahoma State: Remember, the first four spots are reserved for the top four conference champions. So hello, ‘Pokes (who just happened to snap FCS power South Dakota State’s 29-game win streak last weekend).
5. Alabama: About those wide receiver struggles the last two seasons? Freshman Ryan Williams caught two balls, had two touchdowns in the season opener, and is averaging 69.5 yards per catch. He’s 17 years old and won’t turn 18 until February.
6. Oregon: Overreaction, Week 1: I may be a teeny-weeny concerned about my pick of Oregon winning it all.
7. Penn State: We see the ‘Nits differently with the new-look pass offense and are forced to wait six weeks until the next test of the season (Oct. 12 at USC).
8. Texas: A dangerous spot for the Longhorns this week. The Michigan defense will be unlike anything Texas has seen since the 2022 Alabama loss.
9. Notre Dame: So what if the two biggest games are the first and last (at USC) of the season? Let’s enjoy Marcus Freeman further developing into an elite coach.
10. USC: New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s impact is already remarkable: Trojans are bigger, faster and pursue like they haven’t since the Pete Carroll days.
11. Ole Miss: Check back in five weeks after six consecutive gimme putts — Middle Tennessee, at Wake Forest, Georgia Southern, Kentucky, at South Carolina — leave Rebels unbeaten and untested.
12. Liberty: Want a reason to watch the Flames? QB Kaidon Salter, who stayed at Liberty despite transfer overtures from Power Four programs.
13. Utah: Two more transition games from injury for QB Cam Rising before the heavy lifting begins Sept. 21 at Oklahoma State.
14. LSU: Coach Brian Kelly had his Denny Green moment, and it should’ve been worse for a team that hasn’t won a season opener since 2019. Kelly’s teams at Notre Dame responded well to him publicly calling them out. Will it work now?
15. Kansas State: There’s a quarterback named Avery Johnson. Get ahead of the pack and tell your friends you’ve seen the next Johnny Manziel.
16. Missouri: Another scrimmage against another overmatched team (Buffalo) before an intriguing home game against Boston College.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt:
Why is everyone ignoring the defending national champions? It’s like the last three years didn’t happen at Michigan. — Debbie Franklin, Detroit.
Debbie:
It’s not so much ignoring Michigan as it is waiting to see how first-year starting quarterback Davis Warren plays in big games. The first is this weekend against Texas in Ann Arbor, and there are more on the way (USC, Oregon, at Ohio State).
Warren is another of former coach Jim Harbaugh’s handpicked blue-chip quarterback recruits and waited two seasons behind JJ McCarthy to play. If anything, his performance — and the new offensive line’s work — in a closer-than-expected win over Fresno State adds more hesitation.
Don’t believe the narrative that Michigan was holding back in the season opener and saving plays for Texas. The Fresno State game was tight in the fourth quarter, and Michigan was doing everything it could to win.
The pass game has gone from 9 yards per attempt with McCarthy, to 4.5 with Warren and a rebuilt receiving corps. Outside of tailback Donovan Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland, it’s essentially a completely different offense.
The defense will face four elite offenses this season, beginning with Texas this weekend. There’s a lot to like about what Harbaugh built and what Sherrone Moore inherited.
Beat Texas this weekend, and everyone will come around to Michigan again.
9. The numbers game
35. Miami hasn’t had a quarterback drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft since 1989.
That year, Steve Walsh wasn’t selected in the draft, but was a first-round pick in the supplemental draft by the Dallas Cowboys, who forfeited their first-round pick in 1990 to make the selection.
The last Miami quarterback to be picked in the first three rounds of the official draft was Vinny Testaverde, who went No.1 overall in 1987.
This is important for two reasons: After Ward’s performance in a season-opening rout of Florida — and his three seasons of tape prior to arriving in Coral Gables — that streak may end in next year’s draft.
It also illustrates the void of NFL talent at the most important position on the field for the once mighty Hurricanes. While Ken Dorsey was a terrific college player in the early 2000s, he wasn’t an elite NFL prospect.
Since Dorsey, Miami has had a run of forgettable quarterbacks, including Brock Berlin, Kyle Wright, Kirby Freeman, Robert Marve, Jacory Harris, Stephen Morris and … do I need to continue?
Ward is different. The former late bloomer in high school who no one wanted, Ward had to play his first season at FCS Incarnate Word (which only began playing Division I football in 2013), before transferring to Washington State.
He could’ve left for the NFL after his second season at Washington State and likely would have been selected in the first three rounds of the draft. He chose to return for his final season and try to improve his draft position.
Ward was talking to numerous schools this offseason, including Ohio State, Florida State and Miami. He eventually signed with the Hurricanes after the Buckeyes signed Will Howard, and the Seminoles signed Uiagalelei.
10. The last word
Let’s all say a prayer for Marshall, Georgia’s season opener in 2025.
Since its emergence in 2021 as the nation’s elite program, Georgia has played its three season openers against blueblood programs — and given up a total of nine points.
Three points to Clemson in 2021, three to Oregon in 2022 and three to Clemson last weekend. The combined margin of victory in those three games: 93-9.
The only non-FBS opener since 2021 was last year’s scrimmage against Tennessee-Martin, when the Skyhawks scored a touchdown in a 48-7 loss.
So that’s the bar for Marshall.
Matt Hayes in the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at MattHayesCFB.