Big 12 football tiebreaker scenarios revealed. Colorado still has shot

Coach Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes still have a narrow path to get into the Big 12 Conference championship game after dropping into a four-way tie for first place with BYU, Arizona State and Iowa State.

There are two clear ways for them to get in with one game left in the regular season, as confirmed by the Big 12 on Sunday according to league tiebreaker rules.

First the Buffs (8-3) need to beat Oklahoma State (3-8) at home in their regular-season football finale on Friday at noon ET.

∎ Then they need at least two of those other three first-place teams to lose on Saturday, thereby leaving the Buffs alone or in a two-way tie atop the standings with a 7-2 league record.

∎ Or they just need BYU to lose to Houston and Texas Tech to beat West Virginia. Even if the Buffs end up in a three-way tie for first place in this scenario, this combination would favor them under league tiebreaker rules.

If one of those scenarios happens, the Buffs will play for the Big 12 title Dec. 7 in Arlington, Texas, despite suffering a damaging 37-21 loss Saturday against Kansas. If neither of those scenarios happens, the Buffs will instead next play in a non-playoff bowl game such as the Holiday or Alamo Bowl on Dec. 27 or 28.

What if all four first-place Big 12 teams win?

If all four teams win next weekend, Arizona State will play Iowa State for the league title.  Because Colorado has not played those other four first-place teams, the tiebreaker gets complicated and involves records against common conference opponents.

The four first-place teams have four common Big 12 opponents: Kansas, Kansas State, Utah and Central Florida. Arizona State is 4-0 against those teams. BYU is 3-1. Colorado is 2-2. Iowa State is 2-1 and hosts Kansas State next week.

BYU hosts Houston and Arizona State plays at Arizona on Saturday. All four first-place teams have 6-2 records in league play.

What if three teams tie for first place?

The Big 12 spelled it out like this, according to which of the four first-place teams loses and leaves a three-way tie for first place.

∎ If Colorado loses vs. Oklahoma State and the other three teams win, it would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State in the league title game

∎ If Arizona State loses but the others win, it would be Iowa State vs. BYU playing for the championship.

∎ If Iowa State loses but the others win, it would be Arizona State vs. BYU.

∎ If BYU loses but the other three win, it gets even more complicated under league tiebreaker rules and involves records against the next highest placed common opponents in the league standings.

If BYU loses and the other three win, Colorado needs Texas Tech to beat West Virginia in the regular-season finale. That’s because Arizona State and Iowa State both lost to Tech while Colorado beat Tech this season.

Colorado would play in the Big 12 title game in that scenario against either Arizona State or Iowa State, depending on the results of other Big 12 games Saturday. If Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU, Colorado’s opponent in this case would be Iowa State. If not, it would be Arizona State.

But if West Virginia beats Tech in that scenario, Colorado is out and Arizona State would play Iowa State for the league title.

What about the five teams tied for second place?

Five teams are tied for second place in the league standings with 5-3 league records: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, West Virginia and Kansas State.

The league said they must win and see at least three of the four 6-2 teams take a loss.

Follow reporter Brent Schrotenboer @Schrotenboer. Email: bschrotenb@usatoday.com