NCAA releases new women’s tourney projections: Who joins UCLA at No. 1?

The one-loss Bruins are the overall No. 1 seed in the projection released by the NCAA on Thursday night, just as they were when the first women’s college basketball seedings were released Feb. 16. Texas, USC and Notre Dame are the other No. 1 seeds.

In the leadup to Selection Sunday on March 16, the NCAA releases projections of who would be the top 16 seeds if the season ended that day. It does not, of course, with the UCLA-USC rematch on Saturday night and conference tournaments still to be played.

Still, the projections give an idea of how the bracket will shape up.

South Carolina, UConn, LSU and N.C. State are all projected to be No. 2 seeds. TCU, North Carolina, Duke and Tennessee are the No. 3 seeds, and Oklahoma, Kentucky, Kansas State and Ohio State are the No. 4 seeds.

UCLA spent much of the season ranked No. 1 in the USA TODAY Coaches poll before suffering its only loss of the season, to crosstown rival USC, on Feb. 13. The Bruins are currently No. 2 in the poll, one spot behind Texas. But it’s hard to argue with the Bruins as the overall No. 1 seed for the tournament given the other top schools all have two or more losses.

The committee also projected regional assignments. UCLA and USC were sent to the Spokane regional while Texas and Notre Dame were assigned to Birmingham.

NCAA Tournament selection committee rankings

Here’s a full look at the top 16 teams and the regions in which they find themselves from Thursday’s NCAA tournament selection committee ranking unveiling:

Overall seed in parentheses

Spokane 1

UCLA (1)
LSU (7)
North Carolina (10)
Kansas State (15)

Birmingham 2

Texas (2)
NC State (8)
TCU (9)
Ohio State (16)

Spokane 3

Southern California (3)
UConn (6)
Duke (11)
Kentucky (14)

Birmingham 4

Notre Dame (4)
South Carolina (5)
Tennessee (12)
Oklahoma (13)

Unfamiliar territory

If the projected seedings hold – and there’s still a lot of basketball to be played – this would be the first time since 2019 that neither UConn nor South Carolina is a No. 1 seed. UConn was a No. 2 seed that year, and South Carolina a No. 4 seed.

The No. 1 seeds that year? Baylor, Mississippi State, Notre Dame and Louisville.

The selection committee got it half right that year, with Baylor beating Notre Dame for the title. The other two teams in the Final Four, however, were UConn and Oregon.

Potential stumbling blocks

We can’t stress enough that these are projected seeds, and the top 16 in the final bracket could look a lot different. For instance, UCLA hosts USC on Saturday night in a rematch of the Bruins’ only loss of the season. There’s a good chance the crosstown rivals could meet for a third time in the Big Ten tournament title game, too.

Elsewhere, the conference tournaments could upend things. The SEC alone has five teams in Thursday’s projected top 16 seeds while the ACC has four teams and the Big 12 three.

Tobacco Road

North Carolina is used to being the epicenter of men’s basketball. If the final bracket winds up like Thursday’s projection, it will be for women’s hoops, too.

N.C. State, North Carolina and Duke would all host first- and second-round games. It would be the first time since 1998 that all three schools were seeded high enough to host early-round action.