Who wins World Series Game 4? Our simulation predicts a nail-biter
How will this year’s World Series play out? Using the Dynasty League Baseball online simulation, USA TODAY Sports’ Steve Gardner and DLB designer Mike Cieslinski will pre-play each game to provide some insight into the key matchups and strategy fans can expect to see in the Fall Classic.
After three games laden with power hitting and plenty of scoring, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers went retro in Game 4 of USA TODAY Sports’ annual Simulated World Series.
The result was a tense, nail-biting affair that came down to a battle of the bullpens. In the end, Yankees closer Luke Weaver recorded the final seven outs to preserve a 4-3 victory and even the Sim Series at two games apiece.
BOX SCORE: Yankees 4, Dodgers 3
FULL PLAY-BY-PLAY: Yankees hold on for nail-biting win in Game 4
World Series Game 4 simulation
The Dodgers, knowing before the series started that this would be a bullpen game, turned to rookie Landon Knack (3.65 ERA in 69 innings during the regular season) as their Game 4 opener. He and Ryan Brasier matched zeroes with Yankees starter Luis Gil through the first three innings before L.A.’s Gavin Lux opened the scoring with an RBI single in the top of the fourth.
The Yankees took the lead in the fifth when Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres hit back-to-back doubles and Aaron Judge singled home Torres with the go-ahead run for his eighth RBI of the series. One inning later, another Torres double scored Verdugo with the Yanks’ third run of the game.
Shortly after Yankees starter-turned-reliever Nestor Cortes gave up an RBI double to Mookie Betts in the top of the seventh to cut the lead to 3-2, New York turned to closer Luke Weaver to get out of a bases-loaded, two-out jam.
After allowing a long fly ball to deep left field that just barely went foul, Weaver struck out Will Smith to end that threat. He then worked out of a two-on, no-out situation in the eighth after Jazz Chisholm’s RBI double added a valuable insurance run.
Still relatively fresh after picking up a three-out save in Game 2, Weaver remained on the mound for the ninth. Once again, he got into hot water right away – loading the bases on a walk and two singles, then giving up an RBI groundout to make it 4-3. But with the tying run on third, Weaver got Miguel Rojas to ground out to end it.
What to watch in (the real) Game 4
The Judge factor: Struggling mightily in real life, Yankees slugger Aaron Judge went 2-for-4 in Sim Series Game 4, with an RBI single in the bottom of the fifth that put New York ahead to stay. In this series, Judge is hitting an even .500 (8-for-16) with two home runs and eight RBI. It’s not a stretch to suggest that if Judge is hitting anywhere close to the way he did during the regular season, the Yankees wouldn’t be facing elimination – as they are in the real Game 4. Time may be running out on the Yankees and their MVP slugger.
High-leverage at-bats: Both teams had numerous chances to break the game open, but their successes were rare. With runners in scoring position, the Dodgers were 2-for-17, while the Yankees were 3-for-16. That resulted in the Dodgers leaving a total of 14 runners on base and the Yankees 10. Part of that may be due to both teams using multiple relievers to match up against the other team’s hitters. The Dodgers used six pitchers, while the Yankees used four. Expect plenty of pitching changes from the two managers tonight.
Weaver’s staying power: Luke Weaver didn’t take over as the Yankees closer until September, but he pitched well all season long. In his 62 appearances, he threw 84 innings – so getting six or seven outs at a time isn’t unfamiliar territory. In Dynasty League Baseball, Weaver is classified as a long reliever, meaning he can face up to 15 batters without getting tired. In Sim Series Game 4, he nearly got there, facing 12.
Previous 2024 Sim Series results
Game 1: Dodgers 13, Yankees 9
Game 2: Yankees 7, Dodgers 4
Game 3: Yankees 9, Dodgers 5