NASCAR playoff projections with one race left in 2025 regular season

The NASCAR Cup Series playoff field is nearly set with just one race remaining in the 2025 regular season.

Austin Dillon became the 14th driver to clinch a berth in the playoffs and earned a measure of redemption with his victory under the lights at Richmond Raceway on Aug. 16. Including Dillon, 14 drivers have earned wins this season, leaving just two spots remaining in the 16-driver playoff field.

The series now heads to its most famous venue, Daytona International Speedway, for its regular-season finale. The Daytona summer race has produced its share of surprises in recent years, with a number of first-time winners that shook up the playoff field. That includes Erik Jones in 2018, Justin Haley in 2019 and Harrison Burton in 2024, who each celebrated their first NASCAR Cup Series wins at the legendary track.

For winless drivers this season, Daytona serves as the ultimate wild card, providing hope that even someone ranked well back in the standings can claim victory and a berth in the playoffs. And should a previously winless driver take the checkered flag in primetime on Aug. 23, that would leave just one spot available to the top-ranked driver without a victory this season.

Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing and Alex Bowman of Hendrick Motorsports are ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, in the driver standings and would be the final two drivers to make the 10-race playoffs if no new winner emerges. The other side of the 16-driver cut line features two RFK Racing drivers and a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion: No. 17-ranked Chris Buescher, No. 18 Ryan Preece and No. 19 Kyle Busch, the 2015 and 2019 champion and now Dillon’s teammate at Richard Childress Racing.

Here’s a look at the top 20 drivers in the standings following Saturday night’s race at Richmond ranked by playoff seeding as of now:

NASCAR driver standings — Projected 2025 playoffs

A look at the top 20 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series standings, ranked by projected playoff seeding with one race remaining in the regular season.

Includes rank, driver, wins (playoff points in parentheses), regular-season points, and points above or below 16-driver cut line, where applicable:

Denny Hamlin ….. 4 (24) ….. 766
Shane Van Gisbergen ….. 4 (22) ….. 464
Kyle Larson ….. 3 (23) ….. 759
Christopher Bell ….. 3 (17) ….. 748
William Byron ….. 2 (17) ….. 839
Chase Elliott ….. 1 (6) ….. 771
Ryan Blaney ….. 1 (11) ….. 756
Chase Briscoe ….. 1 (7) ….. 698
Bubba Wallace ….. 1 (8) ….. 639
Joey Logano ….. 1 (7) ….. 616
Ross Chastain ….. 1 (6) ….. 589
Austin Cindric ….. 1 (8) ….. 543
Josh Berry ….. 1 (6) ….. 476
Austin Dillon ….. 1 (5) ….. 460
Tyler Reddick ….. 0 (2) ….. 714 ….. +89
Alex Bowman ….. 0 (0) ….. 685 ….. +60
Chris Buescher ….. 0 (-3) ….. 625 ….. -60
Ryan Preece ….. 0 (2) ….. 591 ….. -94
Kyle Busch ….. 0 (0) ….. 537 ….. -148
Ty Gibbs ….. 0 (0) ….. 512 ….. -173

Next NASCAR Cup Series race

Daytona International Speedway will host the final regular-season race on Saturday, Aug. 23 before the 10-race NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begin.

At Daytona International Speedway

Race: Coke Zero Sugar 400
Date: Saturday, Aug. 23
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
TV channel: NBC
Streaming: HBO Max and Fubo

Watch NASCAR Cup Series races on Fubo